1. Wistful in Jerusalem, The Weekly Standard, Elliott Abrams
2. Russia, China, Iran plan to stage in Syria 'biggest Mid East maneuver', DEBKAfile Special Report ,
3. A Growing Russian-Israeli Alliance?, FrontPage Magazine, Joseph Puder
4. Israeli Settlements, American Pressure, and Peace, JCPA, Strategic Perspectives No.10, Steven J. Rosen
5. Enhanced Israeli Realism, Israel Hayom, Yoram Ettinger, Ambassador (ret.)
6. Al Qaeda Threatens a 'Scorching Summer', www.israeldefense.com, Shaul Shay

Can Israelis be wistful? It is not the characteristic we usually associate with them; more typically they are said to be tough, sweet, angry, thoughtful, demanding—not wistful.

Yet that is how I am finding many during my current visit, as I asked them to analyze events in the region in which they live and what to do about them. They look north to Syria and see the savagery, the massacres, the now over 14,000 dead, and the world doing absolutely nothing. "You get no help in this region if you are weak," one IDF general said to me. "It is a reminder to us of just what would have happened to us and could still if we were not strong enough to defend ourselves. But now we watch as these women and children are slaughtered and no one acts to save them. We can't, for all the obvious reasons; it isn't up to us, it's up to the Arabs and to Europe and to you. And you do nothing."

Enter wistfulness. The Israelis know their security is tied to the United States, and no country in the world roots with more energy than Israel for American success and American power. So when we refuse to use it, they shake their heads and wonder why, what does it mean, what are the causes, where does it lead? You could stop the killing in Syria in a week, they say. Think of the lives you would save—and it would hurt Iran and Hezbollah. What is Washington thinking? And of course they wonder what is the meaning for Israel if its champion and key ally thinks itself lacking the power to stop this mass slaughter. They read some of our official statements, and our leaks about how hard it would be to do anything useful in Syria ("the air defenses are so strong" and "the army is large and well-equipped") and shake their heads.  About Syrian air defenses and the full capabilities of the Syrian Army they know a lot, and they know these statements are excuses for inaction rather than careful judgments backed by hard intel....

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A cordial handshake between Russian and Chinese admirals

Middle East military tensions around Syria shot up again Monday, June 18, with the news reported by the semi-official Iranian news agency Fars that a joint Russian-Chinese-Iranian exercise is to take place in Syria.

It was described as “the biggest of its kind ever staged in the Middle East” with 90,000 personnel, 400 air planes and 900 tanks taking part.

As part of its preparations, Beijing is reported to have asked Egyptian authorities to permit the passage through the Suez Canal in late June of 12 naval ships heading for the Syrian port of Tartus, where Moscow maintains a naval and marine base. debkafile reported earlier this week that Russian naval vessels with marines on board were heading for Tartus. The Iranian media did not itemize their contribution to the joint exercise.

debkafile stresses that this would be the first time that substantial Russian and Chinese military strength has ever been deployed in Syria or anywhere else in the Middle East. It means that the two powers are prepared to parade their unabashed partnership with the Iranian and Syrian armies for the shared purpose of obstructing US-European-Arab military intervention in Syria. A large-scale Russian and Chinese military presence in the embattled country would expect to deter the United States from leading a military operation against Bashar Assad and his regime.

No date was attached to the report but the exercise may possibly take place before the end of the month....

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Later this month, Russian president Vladimir Putin is scheduled to make a state visit to Israel.  It will be Putin’s second visit since 2005 (Obama should take notice).  Putin, who began his third term as President of Russia last month, served as Prime Minister in the intervening years.  In Israel, Putin will be meeting with his counterpart Shimon Peres, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Putin’s trip comes amidst the controversial role Russia is playing in the civil war currently unfolding in Syria.  His support for the Assad regime diplomatically and militarily, in providing it with attack helicopters and other heavy arms that the regime has used to butcher civilians, and Russia’s obstruction of any attempt in the UN to condemn the Syrian regime, is antagonizing Western powers.  Syria, however, remains Russia’s only ally in the Middle East and provides Moscow with a naval base in the Mediterranean.  And Russia, like Israel and some other Western powers, are concerned that an Islamist regime will replace Assad.

Putin’s current thinking is that the U.S. and its Western allies will not act militarily against the Assad regime, and that the regime will eventually quell the rebellion.  Russia is therefore unwilling to risk its comfortable position with the Assad regime (with Syria as a major arms purchaser and Russian banks holding more than $6B in Syrian assets) unless it appears that the Free Syrian Army has the upper hand in the apparent civil war....

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Mahmoud Abbas participated in 18 years of direct negotiations with seven Israeli governments, all without the settlements freeze that he now insists is an absolute precondition to begin even low-level talks.

President Obama’s failure to distinguish construction in east Jerusalem from settlement activity in the West Bank put him at odds with the Israeli consensus. No major party in Israel, and no significant part of the Jewish public, is willing to count the Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem as “settlements” to be “frozen.”

The Sharon government reached an understanding with the Bush administration to ban outward geographic expansion of established settlements, while reserving the right to continue expansion inside the “construction line” of existing houses. Almost all the construction that the Netanyahu administration has allowed is either in Jerusalem or in the settlement blocs, the two categories that Israel had thought were protected by understandings with the Americans.

Israelis were bitterly disappointed by the Obama administration’s refusal to acknowledge agreements with a prior U.S. government that the Israelis considered vital and binding. Sharon aide Dov Weissglas said, “If decision-makers in Israel…discover, heaven forbid, that an American pledge is only valid as long as the president in question is in office, nobody will want such pledges.”

Stalled peace negotiations in the Obama years cannot be blamed on Netanyahu’s policies of accelerating settlement construction. He has in fact slowed it down. What has undermined peace negotiations, rather, is Obama’s policy on the settlements – and the unrealistic expectations that policy has nourished....

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...Israelis are becoming increasingly realistic, concluding that Arabs can not be expected to share with the "infidel” Jewish State that – genuine peace - which they have failed (during the last 1,400 years) to accord one another.

"Maagar Mochot” findings:

73% (compared with 64% last year) assume that the Two State Solution will not resolve the conflict with the Palestinians.

64% of Israelis, residing in pre-1967 Israel, support expansion of the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria.

Only 15% (compared with 20% last year) wish to stop construction in Settlements.

Only 45% support partial or full Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria.

Merely 5% support a unilateral Israeli withdrawal.

46% (compared with 38% last year) oppose the uprooting of Settlements in return for a peace treaty....

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...

While al Qaeda is not the first group to call for the use of forest fires as a means of terror, its extensive distribution of propaganda on Jihadi websites and the organization’s unique standing may encourage “forest jihad.”

In the past two years, Israel has taken considerable action to improve the challenges posed by forest fires. This includes establishing a firefighter squadron, which has already extinguished forest fires, as well as improving the coordination between security elements and rescue services needed during a fire.

Al Qaeda, as well as other terror organizations, will likely exploit the hot summer weather to their advantage. This possibility necessitates readiness on behalf of the intelligence organizations, so that they can find and foil planned attacks before they are implemented. It also requires deploying ground or air observation systems in high-risk areas to locate arson attempts as early as possible, and provide an updated situational picture to rescue and firefighter forces so that they can provide an optimal response.

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